Production and Inventory Control Technical-report writing paper

Steps:

* Suppose that you are a manager of the logistics/demand management team at Publix.

Pick 2 different items.

Analyze data; find any weekly (or monthly) data pattern (randomness, seasonality, trend, etc.) and clearly

explain them. You can use graphs to show such data patterns and features.

Predict future weekly (or monthly) demands of selected items for certain time periods. All procedures

should be clearly explained.

Using the predicted demand from S3, establish the best inventory policy for each item (i.e., optimal order

quantity, optimal cycle time, etc.) under any assumption you make. Clearly explain all the procedures including model(s), assumption(s), processes, and final results.

Section structure:

Data Analysis

Forecasting

Inventory policy

* You can add any extra section if you want.

Data analysis – Daily/Weekly/Monthly Demand

Example) Monthly demand

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

page3image3880

Month

Year 1

Year 2

1

740

270

2

404

280

3

454

392

4

438

354

5

510

596

6

940

726

7

782

674

8

532

490

9

442

404

10

606

710

11

546

438

12

388

392page3image29040 page3image29520 page3image30000 page3image30160 page3image30800 page3image31280 page3image31920 page3image32400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Seasonality?

Trend?

Clearly explain any data pattern(s) observed from the selected dataset.

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Predict sales volume of the selected item next year.

?

Forecasting

page4image3936 page4image4096 page4image4256 page4image4416 page4image4576 page4image4736 page4image4896 page4image5056 page4image5216 page4image5376 page4image5536 page4image5696 page4image5856 page4image6016 page4image6176

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Forecasting (cont.)

What is the adequate forecasting method based on data patterns/features observed from the selected dataset?

Required information:

– Daily/weekly/monthly demand

– Demand patterns

Decision:

Simple moving average

Weighted moving average Exponential smoothing Holt’s method

Seasonal decomposition Winter’s method

Output:

Future demand (weekly or monthly)

Inventory Model

Now you can establish weekly (or monthly) inventory policy in terms of (i) order quantity, (ii) cycle time, (iii) reorder level, etc.

Required information:

– Demand of selected item is estimated by the forecasting result. – All cost factors for each item are given in the Excel file.

Decision:

– Stochastic model – continuous/discrete models, lead time/stock shortage/lost sales, etc. – Deterministic model – EOQ with lead time/stock shortage/lost sales, etc.

Output:

– Optimal order quantity

– Optimal order cycle time – Optimal reorder level

Grading Criteria

Clearly explain all procedures and results. All your explanations should be numerically supported.

Remember these are not just homework questions; you need to make a report that would be used for persuading management executives to change inventory policy.

– Clear explanations

– Graphs, methodologies, solution procedures, results.