Running head: TECHNOLOGY AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT 1
TECHNOLOGY AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT 17
1. Demand Forecasting for Tahoe Salt. Use Excel to work through the static forecasting for the Tahoe Salt problem (4th Edition, Chapter 7) Your results should match the given solution
Since there are an even number of period, I will have to find the average of two averages corresponding with periods 1-4 and 2-5. Example De-seasonalized Data Period 3: Ð2.5/= (8000+13000+23000+34000)/4 = 19500, Ð3.5/= (13000+23000+34000+10000)/4= 80000
Ð3/= (80000+19500) = 49750. The formula for this methodology is the following: Ðt/= [Dt-(p/2)+Dt+(p/2)+2]/2P. In excel use the following formulas to calculate the de-seasonalized data = (((SUM (Dt-2: Dt+1)/4) +(SUM (Dt-1: Dt+2)/4))/2) For Example: for period 8 = (((SUM (D7:D10)/4) +(SUM (D8:D11)/4))/2)
Results Column 5:
T: Trend = 524: Level = 18348.99
Regressed Equation: Regressed Demand = 18348.99+524t. Plugging =18439+A2*524 into Excel and copying down the Regressed Data column to apply the regression equation to all actual demand points results in the following:
Results Column 6:
Each seasonal factor is summed up with its corresponding factor in each season cycle. For example: Since their cycles are divided up into quarter the formula will result: Savg1 = (S1+S2+S3)/4, Savg3 = (S3+S7+S11)/4
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